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(As of 12/31/22) — Capital markets rallied modestly in the 4th quarter as the S&P 500 Index gained 7.56%, the only positive quarter for 2022. Cooler inflation readings, resilient consumer spending, and better-than-expected corporate earnings buoyed markets during the first two months of the 4th quarter before pulling back in December. Much of the focus remains on the path of future interest rates, recession fears, and the economic and market impact those events may generate in 2023.

Despite the 4th quarter advance, the stock market recorded its worst calendar year since 2008, with a decline of -18.11% for the S&P 500 Index, and a loss of -32.54% for the growth-oriented and technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index. Large cap technology stocks and the more interest-rate sensitive assets suffered the most, while value stocks outperformed. In the end, nine of the S&P 500 Index’s 11 economic sectors declined. Energy stocks were the bright spot, recording a gain of 65.72% for the sector while Utilities eked out a gain of 1.57% in 2022.

The damage wasn’t isolated to the stock market as the investment-grade bond indices suffered double-digit losses for the year as well. In fact, a traditional balanced investment portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds suffered the 4th worst drawdown in the past 100 years.

Recapping quarterly results, the broad-based Russell 3000 Index advanced 7.18% in the period. Value stocks significantly outperformed growth stocks to close out 2022, as the Russell 3000 Value Index returned 12.18% versus a return of just 2.31% for the Russell 3000 Growth Index. Relative performance was mixed going down in market cap size as small caps advanced less than large caps in the quarter, while mid cap stocks outperformed both large and small caps. Larger cap stocks returned 7.24%, as measured by the Russell 1000 Index, compared to the smaller cap Russell 2000 Index return of 6.23%, while the Russell Midcap Index produced a return of 9.18% in the quarter.

(As of 12/31/22) — We believe a lot of bad news has been priced into market valuations, but volatility could remain elevated. The direction of the market will depend on inflation’s trajectory, the Federal Reserve’s actions to tame inflation, and the amount of economic damage caused by higher interest rates. We are seeing a decline in logistics costs, shipping rates, and most commodity prices, however component shortages/supply chain issues continue to persist. The Fed has increased interest rates by 425 basis points since the beginning of 2022, and market expectations forecast another 50 to 75 basis point increase in this tightening cycle. Meanwhile, global economies continue to slow, especially in Europe where energy prices remain high. While many companies have already lowered financial guidance for the year, we could be bracing for an earnings season where companies’ lower guidance for 2023.

Despite the uncertainty, we remain focused on wide moat, large capitalization dividend-paying companies trading at reasonable valuations, in our view. As always, the Fund will continue to emphasize competitively advantaged companies that can be purchased at a fair value. We will be ready to take advantage of opportunities created by stock market volatility using market declines as attractive entry points for long-term investors.